WASHINGTON: In his first address to a joint session of Congress in his second term, Donald Trump outlined four major bets across politics, foreign policy, and the economy, while keeping his stance on China ambiguous.
Trump’s first bet is shrinking the US State, cutting regulations, reducing services, and limiting America’s international role. His backing of the Department of Government Efficiency, praise for Elon Musk, and criticism of government waste highlight this goal. However, this move risks weakening governance, reducing global influence, and sparking political backlash.
His second bet is reshaping US-Russia-Ukraine relations by pushing Ukraine toward peace terms favorable to Washington and Moscow, while expecting Europe to handle its own security. His demand that Ukraine share its mineral wealth with the US, his suspension of military aid, and his overtures to Russia reflect this strategy. However, this approach risks undermining NATO, emboldening Russia, and signaling weakness to China.
Trump’s third bet is restructuring global trade by imposing tariffs, restricting foreign access to US markets, and favoring bilateral deals. His announcement of reciprocal tariffs from April 2 and his defense of tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China signal his intent. However, this could lead to higher consumer prices, disrupt supply chains, and push countries closer to China.
His fourth bet is establishing US dominance in the Americas. His directive to Secretary of State Marco Rubio to take control of the Panama Canal, criticism of Mexico over cartels and immigration, and previous remarks about Canada as America’s “51st state” highlight this ambition. However, aggressive tactics may trigger nationalist backlash and strain relations with key neighbors.
Trump’s hidden fifth bet remains his stance on China. While he has imposed a 20% tariff, his speech avoided framing China as a direct adversary, omitted references to Taiwan, and left open the possibility of a deal with Xi Jinping. This raises questions about his long-term strategy.
Trump’s bold moves could reshape America’s domestic and global standing, but their success—or failure—will unfold in the months ahead.