India is set to play a crucial role in global trade expansion over the next five years, contributing 6% to worldwide trade growth, placing it just behind China (12%) and the United States (10%), according to a joint report by DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 predicts that India will maintain its third-place position in trade growth while making significant strides in trade speed, climbing 15 spots to rank 17th. The report highlights that India, which was the 13th largest global trade participant in 2024, witnessed a 5.2% compound annual trade volume growth from 2019 to 2024 outpacing global trade growth, which stood at just 2.0%.
“India’s rapid trade growth reflected both its swift macroeconomic growth and its increasing participation in international trade,” the report stated.
India’s Growing Influence in Global Trade
The findings suggest that India is evolving into a pivotal trade hub linking the East and West. “The Trade Atlas underlines India’s rapid expansion in global trade, positioning the country as a critical hub connecting the East and West. While we anticipate trade volume growth and an increase in global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic about the future given the global economy’s general volatility,” said R S Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express.
While China has long been viewed as a more trade-focused economy, the report notes that “India’s goods trade-to-GDP ratio was almost as high as China’s in 2023, and India’s trade intensity exceeded China’s when considering trade in both goods and services.”
Foreign Investment Boosts India’s Trade Prospects
The report underscores that India’s future trade growth is bolstered by significant foreign investments in its manufacturing sector. In 2023, India ranked second globally behind the US as a top destination for announced greenfield foreign direct investment, with manufacturing emerging as the dominant sector.
Emerging Asian economies, including Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, are also expected to experience robust trade growth, reinforcing the region’s rising influence. “With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market,” said Ken Lee, CEO – Asia Pacific, DHL Express.
As South and Southeast Asia continue to outperform other regions in trade growth, India’s expanding role in global commerce signals a promising trajectory for its economy.