Japan population shrank by a record 898,000 people in 2024, lending weight to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s earlier warnings about the country’s deepening demographic crisis. The latest figures, released by Japan’s Interior Ministry, show the non-foreign population has dropped to 120.3 million, marking the 13th consecutive year of decline and the steepest drop since record-keeping began in 1950.
Including foreign nationals, Japan’s total population now stands at 123.8 million, down 550,000 from the previous year. The decline is part of a 14-year downward trend, despite sustained government efforts to reverse it.
The new data validates concerns raised by Musk, who tweeted earlier this year that “Japan’s population is now dropping by almost a million people per year.” He warned that “unless something changes to cause the birth rate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist,” a comment that initially stirred backlash in Japan but has proven prescient in light of the latest figures.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi acknowledged the ongoing demographic challenges, stating that “many people who wish to raise children are not able to fulfill their wishes” due to economic barriers. Despite a 2023 pledge by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to invest roughly 3.5 trillion yen (about $25 billion) annually into childcare and family support, the decline continues to accelerate.
The impact is widespread. Of Japan’s 47 prefectures, only Tokyo and neighboring Saitama recorded population growth in 2024. Northern Akita prefecture experienced the sharpest decline.
Japan’s population peaked in 2008, and the nation continues to grapple with one of the world’s lowest fertility rates. While the government has cautiously welcomed some foreign labor to address workforce shortages, restrictive immigration policies limit their long-term impact.
The country’s shrinking population threatens not only its economic vitality but also its global standing as a leader in sectors like automotive manufacturing, semiconductors, and video game development. Musk’s grim forecast that “Japan will disappear if something doesn’t change” now appears increasingly aligned with reality.