As March Madness tips off, all eyes are on the South region, where top-seeded Auburn looks to silence critics after a shaky finish to the season. A widely shared statistic suggests that no team has lost three of its last four games before the NCAA Tournament and gone on to win the national championship. Yet, despite its late-season struggles, Auburn secured the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed.
Auburn will begin its tournament run against Alabama State, which punched its ticket in dramatic fashion with a last-second layup off a tipped full-court pass to defeat St. Francis 70-68 in the First Four. Meanwhile, another first-round matchup hangs in the balance, as San Diego State or North Carolina awaits a showdown with Ole Miss on Friday.
Here’s a breakdown of key first-round matchups in the South region, with odds provided by BetMGM:
Thursday’s Games (All times Eastern)
No. 8 Louisville (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Creighton – 12:15 p.m.
The tournament’s opening game features a compelling battle between two teams with strong résumés. Louisville’s low seeding is largely a result of playing in a weak ACC, but since December 14, the Cardinals have posted a dominant 21-2 record—one of those losses coming against Duke in the ACC tournament. Creighton, led by 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, will pose a challenge, but Louisville’s momentum gives them the edge.
No. 1 Auburn (-31.5) vs. No. 16 Alabama State – 2:50 p.m.
Alabama State delivered an electric tournament opener, but as a 16 seed, it faces an uphill battle against top-seeded Auburn. This matchup is unlikely to produce a Cinderella story, as Auburn looks to prove why it deserved the No. 1 overall seed.
No. 13 Yale (+7.5) vs. No. 4 Texas A&M – 7:25 p.m.
Yale has established itself as the Ivy League’s premier program, boasting a 16-1 record since December 22. Texas A&M thrives on offensive rebounding—ranking No. 1 nationally—but Yale is solid on the defensive glass. The Ivy League has a strong track record in first-round games, going 10-4 against the spread since 2009, according to Matt Eisenberg’s Tournament Guide. Texas A&M is a formidable opponent, but this could be a tougher battle than expected.
No. 5 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 12 UC San Diego – 10:00 p.m.
The infamous 5-vs.-12 matchup has been a breeding ground for upsets, and UC San Diego is a dangerous underdog. According to KenPom.com, UCSD ranks as the 36th-best team in the nation—just one spot below defending champion UConn. The Tritons shoot a high volume of three-pointers, which could spell trouble for Michigan. However, Michigan holds a major size advantage, with 7-footers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf anchoring the paint. If UCSD gets hot from beyond the arc, an upset is possible, but Michigan’s interior presence makes this a tough draw for the mid-major squad.
Friday’s Game
No. 14 Lipscomb (+14.5) vs. No. 3 Iowa State – 1:30 p.m.
Iowa State once looked like a Final Four contender, but injuries have clouded its outlook. Point guard Tamin Lipsey (10.8 ppg) is expected to return, but leading scorer Keshon Gilbert (13.4 ppg) is out for the season, per The Des Moines Register. Lipscomb has a roster full of shooters, making it a classic high-risk, high-reward underdog. If it can knock down its threes, this game could get interesting.
March Madness is full of surprises—will the South region deliver another?